Friends of Stafford Creeks Nonprofit organization of volunteer citizen scientists monitoring water quality, advocating sustainable land use policies and watershed protection, and promoting education and stewardship of aquatic and wildlife resources in Stafford County Virginia's Potomac River tributaries.   Residential Development Costs Taxpayers Money

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Issue

Does residential growth pay for itself?

Discussion

Residential development does not pay for itself.  Every additional house that is added to the Stafford residential base will cost the existing taxpayers more in annual taxes.  The annual operational expenses of government are increasing at a faster rate than real property is appreciating. 

The American Farmland Trust document, Cost of Community Studies, shows that for every dollar of residential revenue, there is an associated cost of $1.16.  This unfavorable ratio means residential development does not pay for itself.  On the other hand, every dollar of commercial or industrial income has a cost of only 27 cents.  Likewise, agriculture has a favorable relationship like Commercial/Industrial where one dollar of income costs only 36 cents.  This document shows the results of over 120 studies from all over the United States; Stafford County is no different.

In addition to these studies, the Comprehensive Plan Steering Committee developed its own Financial Impact Model (FIM) to evaluate the income and expenses of various build-out scenarios.  Without exception, the more dwelling units planned, the higher the potential tax bill for residents.  Total dollars spent increases, but so do expenses on a per capita basis. 

Here is a graph of the forecasted tax bill for the average Stafford house over the next twenty years.  This graph is based on a buildout of 41,000 additional dwelling units and 20 million more square feet of commercial space over the next twenty years.  Right now Stafford has 42,595 dwelling units and 10 million square feet of commercial space.  This buildout would occur if Stafford’s very high rate of growth continued for the next twenty years. 

This graph is in constant dollars.  This means that all monetary inflation has been removed from the forecast for income and expenses.  This graph tells us that the average house in Stafford was paying $2,208 in real estate taxes in 2006; that same house is forecasted to pay almost $7,000 twenty years later.